How MMV estimates impact
Our cumulative impact
MMV products have effectively treated or protected ~640 million people and saved an estimated 13.6 million lives (absolute impact)/1.4 million lives (relative impact).
How we calculated
The number of people effectively treated or protected is estimated from the cumulative volume of MMV-supported products since the launch of each product.
Estimated numbers of doses needed per treatment are used to convert volumes into numbers of potential treatments, resulting in the theoretical number of people treated or protected. The theoretical number of people treated or protected is then adjusted for wastage, sales and appropriate use (i.e., excluding use of antimalarials in non-malarial cases or drugs indicated for severe malaria in uncomplicated cases) to obtain the estimated number of people effectively treated or protected.
It is estimated that 1.1 billion people have received an MMV-supported product and that 640 million of these were appropriately treated.
The absolute number of deaths averted uses the estimated number of people effectively treated or protected for each product to derive the number of lives saved based on published clinical trial results for that product. It is an estimate based on the assumption that no other treatments would be provided if an MMV-partnership product was not available. The relative number of deaths averted represents the impact of MMV-supported products versus the situation where the MMV-supported products were not available and alternatives were provided. The protective or curative effect of each MMV-supported product is compared with that of the most likely alternative treatment option, based on published clinical trial results.
For example, MMV-supported injectable artesunate is compared to injectable quinine. Where there is no direct comparator (e.g., SPAQ for SMC), the product is compared to the absence of treatment.
The following publications were used in preparing the estimates:
Thwing J et al. “Seasonal malaria chemoprevention for malaria in children in areas with seasonal malaria.” Unpublished evidence appended to WHO Guidelines for malaria, 3 June 2022
Gilmartin C et al. “Seasonal malaria chemoprevention in the Sahel subregion of Africa: a cost-effectiveness and cost savings analysis” Lancet Glob Health. 9(2):e199–208 (2021), doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30475-7
Mori AT et al. "Cost-effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine compared with artemether-lumefantrine for treating uncomplicated malaria in children at a district hospital in Tanzania” Malar J. 13(363) (2014), doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-363
Zani B et al. “Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for treating uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria” Cochrane Database of Syst Rev. Issue 1. Art. no.: CD010927 (2014) doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD010927
Sinclair D et al. “Artemisinin-based combination therapy for treating uncomplicated malaria” Cochrane Database Syst Rev. Issue 3. Art. No.: CD007483 (2009), doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD007483.pub2