Demand forecasting

“Improved supply chains and demand forecasting is essential to ensure that life saving drugs reach patients in need. The new Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) provide a unique opportunity to tackle unacceptable burden of malaria. In order to manage risks and opportunities, manufacturers, procurement agencies and donors need clarity in the medium term needs for these drugs. This report provides a significant contribution to understanding and mitigating the risks related to demand forecasting.”
  Dr Christopher Hentschel, President and CEO, Medicines for Malaria Venture

The dynamic of the antimalarials market has changed significantly since the advent and scale up of ACTs in many African countries. The issue is no longer to find a highly effective medicine, but to ensure that these new medicines reach those who need them.

Many countries have focused initially on access through the public sector. However, even in this environment, the challenges of ensuring supply chain management and appropriate demand forecasting have been significant.

These challenges will further increase as ACTs become more widely available in the private sector - possibly with the arrival of the proposed Affordable Medicines Facility, malaria, derived from the Institute of Medicine’s report ‘Buying Time, Saving Lives’

Understanding the scale up in demand, and therefore planning for implementation, has been a challenge for all stakeholders involved in access to ACTs. National malaria control programmes need to understand their future needs, which may not be entirely in line with historical consumption data. Central medical stores and procurement agencies need to understand which drug to purchase, in what quantities, and for what delivery periods. Funders and donor agencies must foresee sufficient long term funding. Manufacturers must plan immediate production capacity and assess the investments required to scale up in order to meet future demand.

Good forecasting underpins many of these decisions. In light of this, the report ‘A Risky Business’, (download the report in PDF format 1.7MB) by the Centre for Global Development provides an analysis of the problem, and an agenda for action. Taking the ACT example as a case study, specific recommendations have been developed for implementation by interested parties. Among the recommendations is the creation of an "infomediary" — a neutral third party to collect and disseminate essential data for forecasting demand.

MMV welcomes this focus on improving demand forecasting for the antimalarials market. It continue to play an active role in advocating for improved demand forecasting, coordinated by those organizations with the best expertise and capacity to manage this process.